Saman Modiri, Liangbin Yang, Amiya Basu, A Multi-Metric Approach to TV Advertising Effectiveness [Draft available upon request]

While prior research highlights variation in consumer response to TV advertising, most established measures operate at the aggregate level and overlook individual-level variation. Moreover, studies often examine ad effectiveness through isolated metrics, limiting a holistic understanding of advertising impact. This paper addresses both gaps by proposing a multi-metric framework that captures heterogeneous responses to TV ads across three key purchase behaviors: transaction rate, retention likelihood, and average spending. Using a combination of two established stochastic models and a robust empirical framework, we estimate how consumers respond to advertising across these dimensions. Our findings reveal that advertising negatively affects average transaction rates but positively influences average retention likelihood, with no significant effect on average spending. Further analysis across consumer quantiles uncovers additional heterogeneity: advertising improves retention among loyal customers but may induce opportunistic behavior or forward-buying in the broader market, leading to reduced transaction rates for some segments. These results underscore the complex nature of advertising effects and the importance of analyzing them through multiple lenses.